FLUCTUATİONS İN THE CASPİAN SEA LEVEL AGAİNST THE BACKGROUND OF CLİMATE CHANGE AND THEİR IMPACT ON THE COASTAL ZONE
R.H.Gardashov
rauf_gardashov@yahoo.co.uk
DOI: 10.59423/gnr.2024.38.96.015
Annotation. The inability to provide an accurate long-term forecast of Caspian Sea level changes leads to the conclusion that adaptation to level fluctuations is the only rational strategy in coastal zone infrastructure planning. This necessitates the use of lightweight construction technologies that can be shifted, lowered, or raised while maintaining aesthetic appeal. The level changes observed from the start of instrumental measurements in 1837 until 2023 are divided into 7 stages according to trends, and the nature of these changes is analyzed. Level fluctuations are reflected in the dynamics of the shoreline, making the precise determination of the “reference shoreline” coordinates using high-resolution satellite images of scientific and practical significance. In the “Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea,” the shoreline plays a critical role, referred to as the “normal baseline,” which is used to determine a country’s territorial waters and fishing zone. The displacement of the “reference shoreline” in Caspian coastal countries, particularly along the Azerbaijani coast from 1985 to 2020, is determined using ArcGIS tools and other software applications. A spectral analysis of the observed level changes is performed, identifying 10 significant harmonics that reflect the main characteristics of these changes. The connection between these harmonics and geological periods, as well as astronomical factors, is noted.
Keywords: Caspian Sea, level fluctuations, shoreline, spectral analysis, geological periods.
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Accepted for publication: November 15, 2024
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R.H. Gardashov – Fluctuations in the Caspian Sea level against the background of climate change and their impact on the coastal zone. Geography and Natural Resources, №2 (22), 2024, pp. 96-103.