LONG-TERM FLUCTUATIONS OF SURFACE AND UNDERGROUND RUN-OFF OF THE RIVERS OF THE GREAT CAUCASUS
F.A.Imanov, I.S.Aliyeva
Abstract. The article is devoted to the analysis of the main components of the annual runoff – the underground and surface runoff of the rivers of the Greater Caucasus. The data on the runoff of 17 hydrological observation points covering 1934-2017 were used. The analysis of the statistical structure of the series is carried out, the degree of synchronism of fluctuations in runoff characteristics is estimated,linear trends are identified. The stationarity of the series was estimated according to the Fisher and Student criteria; the autocorrelation coefficients were calculated. To analyze the phases of different water content and synchronism of fluctuations, the difference integral curves and correlation analysis are used, respectively. The significance of linear trends was estimated by the values of the pair correlation coefficient and its standard error. It was established that the stationarity of most of the considered series is nonobservance by dispersion or average value. The runoff series are characterized by high autocorrelation. It is shown that, in the long-term fluctuations of the underground river runoff, the phase and synchronism are more pronounced than in the series of the surface runoff. It was revealed that, over a long-term observation period, the underground runoff of the vast majority of rivers increases. For series of surface runoff, multidirectional trends were found. Most of the linear trends in groundwater flow and half of the trends in surface runoff are statistically significant.
Keywords: underground flow, surface flow, long-term fluctuations, stationarity of series, autocorrelation coefficient, correlation matrix, linear trend
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Publication Date: August 30, 2020